Sunday, June 6, 2021

Does Lockdown Works?

Our country entered its third national lockdown on 1st June 2021 to give some breathing spaces to our health care system due to high positive Covid-19 cases since the beginning of the year. The reason for the lockdown was primarily to "flatten the curve", the words made famous by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

What was not explained was that the total infectious and deaths would be about the same over time with or without lockdown. Flattening the curve merely means elongating the curve over a longer span of time. The peak load is lower, but the duration is longer. Total cases and fatalities are defined by the total area under the curve and not by the height of the curve at a particular point. 

Hence, the last ditch to contain the virus is through mass immunization up to a point where there has been a suggestion to make it mandatory for everyone to be inoculated under the emergency ordinance. There's only one problem with this vaccine rationale. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely. Even a successful vaccine must be judged in the context of viral mutation. The vaccine could have produces antibodies for one version of the virus, only to discover the virus mutated into a more lethal form that is unaffected by those antibodies.

I am particularly concerned to be injected with the so called vaccine which utilize the mRNA technology. These experimental gene therapy will enter your cell and orders the cell to construct a spike protein similar to SARS-CoV-2. This spike protein then produces antibodies that can reduce your reaction to SARS-CoV-2 if you got it but it does not prevent you from getting COVID and it does not prevent you from spreading it to others. The spike protein remains with you indefinitely as there is no "off" switch to it. In effect, you have modified your own genetic to fight COVID without gaining immunity and without reducing transmissibility. It is best to trust your own natural immune system to do its job. 

Lockdowns are very good at destroying economy and could be the biggest economic blunders in our nation's history. Jobs and businesses will be lost and government will keep printing money to keep their sunken ship afloat. I foresee another great depression which will make the 1997 & 2008 economic crisis a walk in the park. The effect this time would be inter-generation and we should be prepared for it.

If an infectious virus is spotted early enough and infections are few and in a confined area, then an extreme quarantine can be effective. Together with voluntary social distancing, hand washing and proper masks, a nationwide full lockdown could have been avoided but our country might have miss the boat already.

Lockdowns do not stop the spread of the virus but they do destroy the economy. The costs are just too great and better alternatives must be explored.

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